Kevin Hogan on Decision Making
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STOP Making the Really
Dumb Decisions

Kevin Hogan


Page 2


Kevin Hogan on Decision Making

You made a good decision!

In fact it was the ONLY decision you possibly could have made if you were thinking clearly.

KEYPOINT: Decisions aren't judged on the result that you get from making the decision. It's a good or bad decision based upon the information you have at the time.

Bad luck happened. It so often does. And in this case you got a crummy outcome... but you made the RIGHT decision.

All Olympians, Professional Sports Coaches, Master Chess Players, Millionaires who remain millionaires...they all get this concept. And that's about it.

KEYPOINT: You must figure out what the chances of each outcome are in deciding what to do and all other things being equal, do that which has the best possibility AND value of happening.

Human nature, however, causes us to remember getting tails..."tails never fails"... and causes us to make bad decisions in the future about similar situations.

But a good decision is not just the decision that has the greatest chance of a positive outcome...because all other things are not always equal!!!

The next thing to think about is the VALUE of each result in a decision.

The Value of a decision is figured out by simply taking the possible outcomes and figuring the chances of each of those outcomes and then factoring in the value of each option.

Kevin Hogan on Decision Making Watch...

Imagine you have one dice on your left. Six sides on a dice (die). 1,2,3,4,5,6.

If you roll a 1 or 2 you lose $100

If you roll a 3,4,5 you win $50

If you roll a 6 you win $1000

Write that information down.

You see another dice on your right.

On this dice, if you roll a 1 you lose $50

If you roll anything else (2,3,4,5,6) you win $100

You get ONE roll of ONE dice.

Which dice should you roll?

Find out if you are right!



Continue: Page | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |




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Kevin Hogan
Network 3000 Publishing
16526 W. 78th St. #138
Eden Prairie, MN 55346
(612) 616-0732

Photos appear under license with istockphoto/aldra and Stockexchange.





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